The central bank overspent the one-year MLF. The funds in August were stable.

On August 15, the central bank issued a notice saying that it would carry out a one-year operation of 399.5 billion yuan MLF (intermediate loan lending facility) with an interest rate of 3.20%, which was the same as the previous period. In addition, there are 140 billion yuan reverse repurchase maturity, which is 7 days with 70 billion yuan and 14 days with 70 billion yuan. On that day, 287.5 billion yuan of MLF expired, which was 150 billion yuan for June and 1375 for 1 year. 100 million yuan, a net return of 28 billion yuan.

Continuing the idea of ​​one-half centralized hedging of the MLF due amount in the previous two months, the central bank chose to over-hedge to achieve a net investment of 112 billion yuan. 000 686 Northeast Securities chief fixed income analyst attending shares the view that the second half of this year, interest rate debt supply-pressure force is larger, in order to prevent inter-bank liquidity pressures lead to interest rate debt issuance blocked, the central bank chose excessive sequel MLF, it is to prevent Market liquidity has caused too much impact.

The above analysts told reporters that from the operation of the central bank to over-deliver MLF and suspend reverse repurchase, it can be seen that the current monetary policy is still not tight. Since the beginning of August, there have been few market liquidity disturbance factors, and the funds are in a relatively stable state. In order to prevent the funds from being too loose and provide more leverage for the institutions, and to avoid the market interpreting the MLF operations as loose, the central bank chooses here. The reverse repo operation is suspended.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 14, from January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 337.09 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points from January to June, lower than expected. 8.6%. The above analysts believe that the data shows that the Chinese economy has experienced a marginal decline in the second half of the year. Therefore, under the background of economic downward pressure, on the one hand, the central bank needs to supplement long-term liquidity to prevent liquidity tension from causing difficulties in financing the real economy; on the other hand, it will appropriately tighten short-term liquidity and prevent liquidity from looming. Bond market leverage. In general, monetary policy will remain stable and neutral in the second half of the year. In addition, the central bank will enrich the varieties of reverse repurchase terms and better serve the policy objectives of “cutting peaks and filling valleys”.

On August 11, the central bank issued the “Second Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report”. The report stated that it will pay close attention to the possible impact of changes in the domestic and international situation on liquidity, more accurately monitor and grasp the actual financing situation of the whole society, and flexibly use various The combination of monetary policy tools, rational arrangement of tool matching and operation rhythm, "shaving peaks and filling valleys" to maintain liquidity is basically stable, and deal with the relationship between stable growth, structural adjustment, and total control.

After the time node at the end of July, the central bank’s monetary policy operation in August has achieved a net return of 98 billion yuan. Market liquidity is still relatively plentiful, with the 7-day interbank pledged repo rate, which has been in the range of 2.8% to 2.9%.

Li Qilin, managing director of Lianxun Securities, believes that at the time of monthly tax payment and statutory deposit reserve payment, inter-bank liquidity should be in a state of “continuous blood loss”, but in fact interbank liquidity is not imagined. bad. On the one hand, it may be that foreign exchange accounts have contributed to the inter-bank liquidity in the context of the continued strength of the renminbi; on the other hand, it may be that the bank deposits have a small increment, so the monthly pressure for this month is not Big, maybe even a refund. Based on the above two points, the current liquidity is still relatively abundant.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Qilin believes that the operation of the central bank follows the principle of camera selection and will change according to changes in the market. If there is no tightening trend in recent days, the central bank's future funding strategy will still be fully hedged or even slightly reduced. Lord, the capital fabrics in August will be relatively stable.