Taishan period: night and 8.11 trading recommendations

The rubber is more profitable and the band will rise.

In terms of market, the price of natural rubber in Hengshui market fell by RMB 100/ton. At present, the current shipments of the region are not much. Due to the pessimistic attitude towards the market outlook, the intention of dumping goods is poor, and the factory mostly purchases in stock. Mainly. Mainstream reference price: 15 years Baodao whole milk tax-included reference price 12300-12400 yuan / ton; 16 years cloud elephant whole milk offer 12600 yuan / ton; firm guidance Jiataishan period WeChat public number: tskq88 minority standard two offer 12400 Yuan/ton; the price of imported rubber is scarce, and I heard that a few 16-year-old manufacturers have a price of 15,000 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, China Natural Rubber was 180,500 tons, down 20.09 million tons from the middle of last month, a decrease of 10.38%; synthetic rubber was 48,800 tons, down 0.44 million tons from the middle of last month, down 8.27%; compound rubber was stable at 0.43 Ten thousand tons. At present, the bonded area basically enters the stage of reducing inventory. The main reason is that on the one hand, the purchase of raw materials in the tire factory increases, and on the other hand, the amount of stocks is stable due to the slowing of the amount of storage, and the overall inventory shows a downward trend.

Rubber tempered on Thursday to close the Yinxian line, rubber is expected to continue to surge in the current band, short-term is not recommended to chase more than one, waiting for the rubber to fall back to the bottom and then buy more than one, the previous wave of more than one can be Continue to hold, long-term authors continue to see more rubber prices.

Copper, zinc and nickel will break through and will continue to rise

After overnight, the copper rushed back to a high of $6515, which was mainly affected by the fund's profit. The main force of Shanghai copper hit a high of 51,460 yuan, and it still maintains a high level of shock. The industry expects the short-term copper price to increase in environmental protection. The US dollar index is weak, the callback space is limited, and the copper wire is supported by the 6400 US dollar. Shanghai copper or Hold the 50,000 mark. At present, the holders of the goods are willing to ship, but the copper manufacturers and traders are very cautious in the current high-position area. They are worried that the price will be further adjusted, and the demand in the copper market has not improved significantly. It is still maintaining the demand-based purchases. Relatively limited. The industry said that the biggest threat to the future copper price will be "the dollar index or bottoming out."

Operation suggestion: Copper, zinc and nickel have a certain correction on Thursday, Shanghai zinc has a large correction, the author believes that the small correction of the non-ferrous sector does not change its strong market, the short-term decline is the opportunity to buy more, it is recommended that the copper-zinc-nickel night plate and Friday After the opening of the market, it is expected to buy more than one single. It is expected that the three will have a bottoming out market trend. As a whole, the rise of the non-ferrous plate will not be over.

Thread iron ore warfare

The fourth inspection of the State Council began to tour. In some places, such as Tianjin and Hunan, there were still problems in the production of “strip steel” in violation of regulations. The central government recently made important instructions. The governments of the two places attached great importance to it and immediately rectified it. In addition, the Ministry of Environmental Protection recently reported that the flood control in Hebei has been lagging behind. Subsequently, the Hebei Provincial Party Committee held a deep-reform group meeting on July 28 to comprehensively investigate the zombie enterprises in steel and other aspects. The price of 20mm rebar in 13 cities including Shanghai, Changsha, Shenyang and Chengdu rose by RMB 10-80/ton, and the price of rebar in some cities such as Nanchang, Beijing and Tianjin was adjusted back by RMB 20-40/ton. Tangshan steel billet Changli factory reported 3,700 yuan / ton, cash including tax. On August 8th, a total of 8 steel mills across the country issued price adjustment information, and the price of steel was adjusted by 30-460 yuan/ton.

Threaded steel ore bottomed out on Thursday and rebounded. After the opening, the first decline was followed by a strong pull. This completely confirmed the author's suggestion that the threaded steel ore bottomed out and the operation idea, and the real guide to the Jiataishan period WeChat public No.: tskq88 night plate and Friday threaded iron ore need to be alert to the change of the signal, it is expected to appear high and fall back the market trend, so the intraday can be short-selling after the price rebounds.

Plastic pp fall back to make more profit

The index of API data released in the morning was 178, and the published value was -783.9. The data was sharply bullish for crude oil, but the price of crude oil was basically not much. After the API data unexpectedly recorded last week, this week's API data. If the market expects a decline and the decline far exceeds expectations, the US and the two oils will rise shortly after the data is released; but the increase in the gasoline storage accidents has slightly increased the oil price trend. In this respect, crude oil The rise is also stressful. The overnight EIA monthly report slightly lowered demand expectations and raised production expectations; although API crude oil inventories fell sharply, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose during the peak summer demand period; and when EIA crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, API crude oil inventories increased. Therefore, the impact of the API crude oil inventories this week was greatly reduced; in addition, there was not much substantial progress in the OPEC and non-OPEC meetings on the previous day, saying that the discussion on August 21 also suggested that the past two days of talks were not optimistic. The market is lingering over OPEC's commitment to reduce production.

Operation suggestion: Plastics and pp bottomed out on Thursday to get higher and close to the sun, in line with the author's suggestion of dips and more ideas, plastic pp will be expected to continue to move higher on Friday, it is recommended to maintain the return and more ideas will not rule out Continue to rebound and close the sun.

Soybean meal, long market, continuation, will also hope to rise

According to data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Trade, Brazil's soybean exports in June were 9.197 million tons, down 16% from 10.96 million tons in May and 18.5% from 7.761 million tons in the same period last year. In the first six months of this year, Brazil's soybean exports totaled 44.7 million tons, a record high in the same period of the previous year, an increase of 6.12 million tons from the same period last year of 3.58 million tons, an increase of 15.86%. The Brazilian Grain Export Association estimates that Brazil's soybean exports will be 7 million tons in July, and Brazil's total soybean exports are expected to reach 61-62 million tons in 2017. The firm's guidance on the Jiataishan period WeChat public number: tskq88 The US Department of Agriculture announced the monthly supply and demand report for July, showing that US soybeans in 2016/17 and 2017/18 carry over the decline in inventory, of which the inventory was 410 million The bushels are down 24 million bushels from the estimate, with 450 million bushels reported in June and 460 million bushels in new crops, down 2,300 bushels from the projected average and 495 million bushels in June.

Operation suggestion: Bean 粕 继续 继续 继续 继续 继续 继续 继续 继续 继续 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕More operational ideas, the two opened slightly behind the opportunity to buy a decisive buy more than a single, is expected to bottom out and rebound, continue to see more ideas on Friday.

Eggs continue to strengthen, more orders continue to buy

On August 10th, the egg prices in the main producing areas continued to be adjusted, and the sales areas in Beijing and Shanghai stabilized. Recently, the sales in the sales area increased, and the terminal digestion gradually adjusted. However, the inventory of farmers and egg dealers in the producing areas was basically small, and the goods were generally in general. After the price of the egg rose slightly after a wave of pull-up, but the market inventory is not much, the demand for the two quarters approaching and the start of the school season is expected to pick up, the market atmosphere is more optimistic. According to Zhihua data, the national egg prices have risen and fallen, and the overall price is weak. Traders are more likely to receive goods, and the goods are slower. The overall trade situation has not changed much from the previous day. The traders' inventory is low, which is not much changed from the previous day. The traders' bearish expectations are weakening, and the East China region is bearish. North China is bullish. At present, the focus of the market is whether the spot price increase can cover the premium of the swap price, and the September premium of the egg may have largely reflected the expectation of seasonal increase.

Operation suggestion: Eggs continue to rebound on Thursday, the most recent egg-based team in the Taishan team has been showing good performance in recent days. At present, the egg rise has not ended yet. On Friday, we will continue to maintain dips and do more operations. Eggs can be done. Multi-position reference can be found near 4400. The band that is bought at the low point in the previous period can continue to be held.

The rise of palm oil and soybean oil continues to grow

Palm oil entered the production increase cycle, supply expectations may be further improved, and the expected increase in production in the future is strong on the trend of horse palm oil (5440, 94.00, 1.76%). At the same time, the stocks have bottomed out and will continue to rise. In addition, the FOB spread in the international market shows that the relative competitiveness of palm oil has increased, but it continues to be affected by the trend of soybean oil (6308, 90.00, 1.45%) in the international market. Under the trade market share, horse palm oil is difficult to be strong. Palm oil upside down at home and abroad improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm was restored. Although domestic inventory pressure is expected to gradually improve after mid-August. The growth of US beans is relatively normal. The weather forecast for mid-August shows that the growth of beneficial beans is not obvious. Weather city speculation cools down, but weather changes will still be the source of market volatility. Domestic soybeans have a large amount of Hong Kong arrivals, and under the unsatisfactory crushing profits, the country is gradually delaying the arrival of soybeans.

Operation suggestion: Soybean oil palm oil bottomed out on Thursday, the firm guidance of the Jiataishan period WeChat public number: tskq88 fully confirms the author's suggestion to do more operational ideas, the sharp correction in the intraday is a good opportunity to buy more than one It is suggested that the night plate and the soy oil palm oil will continue to do more after the opening of the market, and the idea will continue to rebound.

The trend of asphalt methanol is unchanged

FOB US sea methanol price was raised from US$295.94/ton to US$300.96/ton, up US$5.02/ton; CFR China main port maintained US$1275/ton, price fluctuation was limited; FOB US Gulf spot price was raised from 251 Euro/ton to 269 ​​euros / ton, up 12 euros / ton; CFR Southeast Asia from 278 US dollars / ton back to 280 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton. Overall, the price of major international methanol in July was stable and small, and the center of gravity was slightly too high. Mainly due to the overhaul of important methanol plants, a few important traders entered the market to support the air. Southern Chemical Corp.'s July 2017 North American CP price was 110 cents per gallon ($365.86/tonne), up 2 cents/gallon from its North American contract price in July. Canadian methanol producer Methanex's August North American CP price (non-discounted contract price) was 113 cents/gal ($375.84/ton), which was the same as the July CP price.

Futures market: Asphalt methanol bottomed out on Thursday, in line with the author's suggestion of low point to do more operational ideas, the two have not yet ended the rising market, the night plate and Friday's opening down the bottom of the bottom after the opportunity to buy more than one, expected asphalt methanol It is also expected to continue to rebound and continue to maintain the long-term thinking and operation.

Corn and starch continue to rise strongly, and can buy more than one single

Received the notice from the relevant state departments: Cancel the corn sales plan of Jilin 44,500 tons of sub-loan on August 10. On the domestic front, with the tight supply of the near-storage, the supply pressure is highlighted. In the downstream corn feed, the low season of consumption is highlighted, and the pig price remains weak. Southern new grain began to be listed in small quantities, and the reserves of throwing in 14 years gradually increased, but in recent days, more rainfall in many places has boosted the price of corn, and the price of short-term corn may rebound due to weather speculation. This week, the National Reserve auctioned 13/14/15 corn in the total amount of 4.2 million tons, down from the previous few weeks, but the decline in the transaction rate is more obvious. Among them, although the quality of corn in 2015 is good, the market enthusiasm is not high. In addition, with the maturity of new corn in the Yangtze River Basin, downstream enterprises prefer high-quality new corn, slowing down the purchase and sale of Chenliang, resulting in market supply pressure.

Operational recommendations: corn starch and corn continue to rise strongly on Thursday. The two sides continue to rise after shock consolidation. It is still seen that they are still in a bullish strong market. If you operate on Friday, you should continue to maintain a long-term thinking, waiting for a callback to look for opportunities to buy. See the high rebound in the multiple singles.

(Editor: Hu Ziqiang HF110)